In 2009 The Situation In Acrylic Industry Annually For 10 Years Is Expected To Continue To Improve,
Acrylic better market performance in 2009, the overall upward trend in the main. Quotes of the increase concentrated in the second quarter and fourth quarter, the first and third quarters of the market is relatively stable.
Upward trend throughout the year mainly
The main phase of a small consolidation. Chinese New Year around the acrylic market as a whole is low, due to the industry at a high level of inventory downstream yarn manufacturers to produce low load, coupled with the impact of funds withdrawn from circulation, yarn manufacturers Jiancang intention of the doldrums, procurement initiative is not high and therefore I demand market for acrylic very limited production and sales of acrylic fiber manufacturers is not ideal. Acrylic prices in overall terms in a narrow range of adjustment of status, a slight softening before the Spring Festival. In March after the rebound and the demand by the downstream support costs, the price rebounded slightly.
A strong rise phase. In the second quarter, with the recovery of the downstream yarn manufacturers, pre-raw material inventories have been gradually consumed, coupled with the lower concentration of export orders, production, procurement of yarn manufacturers active in sales of acrylic hot. Meanwhile, in the upstream and downstream of acrylonitrile prices driven by strong demand, acrylic prices climbing. May later, acrylic gradually into the relatively stable demand situation, but the market is still in a state of shortage, acrylic (1.5D acrylic staple fiber, the same below) prices again rose sharply to 17,000 yuan / tons. Subsequently, the market demand gradually go short, 6 mid-market price of high end acrylic consolidation.
Ready stage. In the third quarter demand for the traditional low season for the PAN, in the domestic market has not yet started, the downstream demand in overall bland background, the whole in July, acrylic markets remain minor adjustments to the trend. Entered in August, a slight acrylic test a low price, but by the upstream industry as a whole inventory costs and low support, test a low range is limited. In September, the downstream signs of slow recovery of demand, but because of maintenance acrylic manufacturers are more drop in the supply market supply situation.
Stage on the rise again. The fourth quarter, acrylic prices surged to the highest this year. October acrylic material slightly higher upstream and downstream needs of small to pick up, co-lead acrylic prices rebound trend. With the temperature reduced, the lower acrylic yarn prices just picked up a gradual improvement in market fundamentals acrylic turnover improved. At the same time, the upstream raw material prices continued to rise, supported by a strong re-emergence of acrylic fiber prices rose in December acrylic prices surged to an annual high, reaching 20,000 yuan / tons. With the rise in the price of acrylic and downstream needs to go a little pale. Acrylic market took the end of slow, high-based consolidation.
Acrylic fiber prices in 2009 mainly by the impact of supply and demand, of course, cost factors have been rising as the process can not be ignored, acrylonitrile prices for acrylic Quotes played a role in fueling. 1 May, acrylonitrile market prices bottomed out, stabilized recovery. In June to enter the vulnerable stage of consolidation. 7 ~ 8 months, the price re-enter the upstream channel. 9 to 10 months, acrylonitrile prices fell slightly. In November, due to continued strong demand for the downstream, coupled with supply shortages, high prices outside the plate, the market prices rise.
Sound momentum of 2010 is expected to continue
The year 2009, basically at the acrylic fiber business profitable. In April due to rising raw materials prices, resulting in less acrylic industry losses occur throughout the year, into the 5-months later, as prices rise, a gradual increase in the level of corporate profits, acrylic, early in July at their annual profits, the highest point. The second half of acrylic fiber business to stay profitable, but the profit level of repression by the upstream raw materials.
Compared to 2008, in 2009 the rate of domestic acrylic fiber plant starts rebounded slightly, but because of Daqing Petrochemical Company Limited Ningbo, Zhejiang Golden, Qinhuangdao Ole acrylic installations throughout the year in the parking state, Ningbo Li Yang acrylic device has 7 months in a parking state, the industry overall production capacity is still not high. In 2009, with the gradual recovery of the global economy, demand for acrylic fiber has warmed up, the downstream yarn industry produced at a high load level, have larger domestic market, foreign trade steady recovery in demand, acrylic business at a low level of inventory level throughout the year . In the sales season, once a shortage situation.
In 2009 China’s import of acrylic increased slightly, partly because of domestic demand recovery in the downstream, domestic manufacturers supply is limited; the other hand, because of our differentiated production base of acrylic is still weak, and domestic acrylic fiber differentiation both in quantity and quality on both the domestic market can not meet demand, so in recent years in China Acrylic Acrylic differential proportion of total imports continues to increase.
China acrylic fiber production in 2009 about 67 million tons, representing an increase of 10% or more in 2008. After the baptism of the financial crisis of 2008, acrylic fiber industry, highlighting the phenomenon of low excess capacity, the domestic part of the production can be shut down in the next period of time, there is no new or expanded domestic acrylic fiber production capacity. 2010, part of the cut-off device is expected to re-open, acrylic production will continue to increase, the domestic acrylic self-sufficiency rate will be raised. At the same time, the upper reaches of high raw material prices will squeeze the production of acrylic fibers business profits, influence their production enthusiasm. In addition, the modified polyester fibers and other alternatives due to relatively inexpensive, but also performance and acrylic fibers close to the downstream part of the field of use with acrylic compete, but also on future market demand for acrylic threat. However, the characteristics of acrylic self-possessed, in the downstream market will still have their own living space. After 2010 it is expected that production will occur in China Acrylic steadily situation does not rise too much.
In general, acrylic fiber market is expected to continue in 2010 a good sales momentum in 2009, mainly based on the analysis of the following aspects: First, the domestic production of acrylic fiber unit load is not high, without fear of excess produce market supply situation; Second, with the to stabilize the world economy picked up, acrylic domestic and export market demand will be restored; In addition, the cost of raw materials strong, the market for acrylic fibers also play a strong supporting role.
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